Hey, really like the tool you have here.
I was wondering there should be a component taking into account the opponent's offensive rating? Or are you just assuming that the league averages are close enough.
For instance, with the Sixers and Ben Simmons.
The Sixers' offensive rating is 110.24. That seems to me to translate to expected points per possession of 1.10.
Simmons shoots 58% from the line. That makes it 1.16 expected points per possession right?
I guess there's an additional value to just stopping the clock? and/or teams like the Pelicans with no inside presence can't stop the Sixers in an end-game situation? And/or end-game offensive ratings tend to be higher than the team's average offensive rating?
